Worongary Leads the Corridor at $1,740,000 as Burleigh Waters and Merrimac Record Year-on-Year Price Declines

The Southern Gold Coast corridor is splitting in two. Three suburbs are posting strong expansion-phase price growth while two others — Burleigh Waters and Merrimac — are in confirmed contraction, with year-on-year declines of –7.0% and –9.0% respectively.

The Corridor at a Glance

Four of the seven tracked suburbs are in expansion or strong expansion phase this period. Worongary sits at the top of the corridor at a median of $1,740,000 (+28.4% YoY), followed by Mudgeeraba at $1,310,000 (+19.1%) and Robina at $1,230,000 (+20.0%). Varsity Lakes, at $1,150,000, records the lowest absolute median of the expanding suburbs but carries the strongest quarterly momentum in the corridor at +18.6% QoQ.

Against that, Burleigh Waters has shed –13.4% in a single quarter to sit at $1,255,000, and Merrimac has declined –9.0% year-on-year to $757,000 — the lowest median in the corridor by a significant margin. No data is available for Reedy Creek this period.

Supply conditions across the corridor are extremely tight. Five of the six data-reporting suburbs show 0.0 months of supply. Only Robina carries measurable stock, at 2.1 months — still well below a balanced market threshold. Days on market for the three suburbs with available DOM data range from 20 to 24 days, and between 54% and 77% of sales are completing within 30 days. Transaction volumes are down sharply corridor-wide, with year-on-year sales count declines ranging from –30.7% in Mudgeeraba to –58.8% in Varsity Lakes.

Suburb by Suburb

Robina — Median $1,230,000, +20.0% YoY, –2.0% QoQ. DOM 20 days. Robina is the corridor's most liquid market by volume, with 263 sales in the trailing 12 months, though that figure is –40.8% below the prior period. The –2.0% quarterly dip is modest against a 20-point annual gain, and the 2.1 months of supply is the only meaningful available stock in the corridor. The automated valuation of $1,320,000 sits above the current median, and asking prices are running at –9.9% below valuation, which indicates vendor pricing has not yet caught up with assessed values. Stale listings (>60 days) are up +17.9%, worth monitoring.

Mudgeeraba — Median $1,310,000, +19.1% YoY, +9.2% QoQ. DOM 22 days. Mudgeeraba is accelerating: the +9.2% quarterly gain confirms the annual trend is not plateauing. With 66.7% of properties selling within 30 days and 0.0 months of supply, this is a supply-constrained market. The automated valuation of $1,300,000 is broadly in line with the current transacted median. Active listings and asking price data are unavailable this period.

Varsity Lakes — Median $1,150,000, +13.9% YoY, +18.6% QoQ. DOM 22 days. Varsity Lakes records the strongest quarterly price movement in the corridor this period. Sales volume has contracted sharply (–58.8% vs prior 12 months), and 0.0 months of supply means buyers are competing for very limited stock. At 70.8% of sales completing within 30 days, absorption is fast. The automated valuation of $1,160,000 is closely aligned with the transacted median.

Reedy Creek — No data available for this period. Median price, YoY%, DOM, supply, and all associated metrics are unavailable. Reedy Creek cannot be assessed this month.

Burleigh Waters — Median $1,255,000, –7.0% YoY, –13.4% QoQ. DOM 24 days. Burleigh Waters is in contraction. The –13.4% quarterly decline is the sharpest single-period fall in the corridor and represents a meaningful reversal. The automated valuation of $1,640,000 is $385,000 above the current transacted median — a significant gap that warrants scrutiny rather than assumption. Sales volume is –35.4% below the prior period. Despite the price contraction, 54.2% of properties still transact within 30 days and supply reads 0.0 months, suggesting demand has not collapsed — but pricing pressure is real. Active listings and asking price data are unavailable.

Merrimac — Median $757,000, –9.0% YoY, –0.6% QoQ. DOM unavailable. Merrimac carries the lowest median in the corridor at $757,000, down –9.0% year-on-year. The quarterly movement of –0.6% suggests the rate of decline may be slowing, though one data point is insufficient to confirm a floor. The automated valuation of $1,100,000 sits $343,000 above the transacted median — the largest absolute gap in the corridor and one that requires careful interpretation. Sales volume is down –36.6%. DOM, asking price, and stale listing data are unavailable this period.

Worongary — Median $1,740,000, +28.4% YoY, –2.4% QoQ. DOM unavailable. Worongary records the highest median and the strongest annual growth rate in the corridor. The –2.4% quarterly movement is minor relative to the annual trajectory. However, with only 35 sales in the trailing 12 months and a –58.3% volume decline versus the prior period, this is a thin market. Medians derived from low transaction counts can shift materially on a small number of sales. The automated valuation of $1,760,000 is broadly consistent with the current median. All conclusions from Worongary data should be treated with caution given the sample size.

For Buyers

The most favourable entry conditions on the data currently sit in Burleigh Waters. The transacted median of $1,255,000 is in contraction (–7.0% YoY, –13.4% QoQ), DOM is 24 days — the longest in the corridor — and the suburb is in confirmed contraction phase. For buyers with a long horizon who can absorb near-term price risk, Burleigh Waters offers more negotiating surface than any expanding suburb in the corridor. Merrimac at $757,000 also warrants attention: it is the lowest entry point in the corridor, the quarterly decline has nearly halted at –0.6%, and the automated valuation of $1,100,000 represents a notable gap above the current transacted median. DOM data is unavailable for Merrimac, which limits full assessment.

Buyers seeking expansion-phase suburbs should note that Varsity Lakes, while growing at +18.6% QoQ, still sits $80,000 below Robina's median. At 0.0 months of supply and 70.8% of stock clearing within 30 days, competition is high — but the entry price relative to corridor peers is comparatively lower.

For Sellers

Seller leverage is strongest in Mudgeeraba and Varsity Lakes. Both suburbs show 0.0 months of supply, are in expansion or strong expansion phase, and have more than two-thirds of listings selling within 30 days. Mudgeeraba's +9.2% quarterly gain signals active price formation — sellers who have held through the growth cycle are well-positioned. In Varsity Lakes, the +18.6% quarterly surge is the most aggressive momentum in the corridor right now.

Robina also supports sellers, but with a caveat: stale listings are up +17.9% and asking prices are running –9.9% below automated valuations. This suggests some vendors are mispricing. At $1,230,000 median with 76.9% of stock selling within 30 days, well-priced Robina stock is still moving fast — but overpriced listings are sitting. Sellers in Robina should price to the transacted median, not aspirational asking figures.

What to Watch

Robina: Monitor whether the stale listing rate (+17.9%) continues to rise, which would indicate a widening gap between vendor expectations and buyer demand.

Mudgeeraba: Watch whether the +9.2% quarterly gain holds in Q2 data, given the absence of fresh listing volume to confirm depth of demand.

Varsity Lakes: The –58.8% volume decline is the steepest in the corridor — track whether transaction counts recover or whether the +18.6% quarterly median is compressing on thin sales.

Reedy Creek: No data available this period; any metrics reported in March will establish a baseline for comparison.

Burleigh Waters: The $385,000 gap between automated valuation ($1,640,000) and transacted median ($1,255,000) is the key figure to watch — movement in either direction will signal whether this contraction is correcting toward fundamentals or deepening.

Merrimac: The near-flat QoQ movement of –0.6% is the first signal that the –9.0% annual decline may be moderating; watch whether Q2 continues this pattern.

Worongary: With only 35 sales in 12 months, any single quarter can materially move the median — watch volume alongside price before drawing trend conclusions.

Fields monitors price movements, days on market, and supply conditions across the Southern Gold Coast corridor weekly. Data sourced from Fields internal database.